TRUMP & CLINTON, BY THE NUMBERS.

 According to recent polls, Hillary Clinton is up double digits in three states that Trump can’t afford to lose: Colorado, Virginia and Pennsylvania. Four new NBC News/Marist College polls released Friday show Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton leading her Republican rival by five points in Florida, nine points in North Carolina and double digits in Colorado (14) and Virginia (13). All four states have been battlegrounds in recent presidential elections.

And really, it’s those last two numbers that show just how massively difficult Trump’s path to the presidency is right now. Because without Colorado and Virginia — and a third state where he trails by double digits, Pennsylvania — he’s all but sunk.

Trump has actually polled quite competitively in Florida, with most recent polls showing a virtual tie. But even if he wins there, he can’t survive losing Colorado, Pennsylvania and Virginia. Losing all three and New Mexico would put Clinton at 269 electoral votes — just one shy of victory.  Trump continues to trail by double digits in Colorado, Pennsylvania and Virginia.

From there, all Clinton would need to do is win one of the following: Nevada (6 electoral votes), Iowa (6), Ohio (18), New Hampshire (4) or North Carolina (15). Oh, and remember that the new NBC/Marist polls shows Clinton up nine points in North Carolina, and a poll this week showed Clinton up 17 (!) in New Hampshire.

And if you throw in New Hampshire and give Clinton every battleground state in which she currently leads by double digits in the most recent poll, she’s already won with 273 electoral votes.

 

Trump is doing worse with Hispanic voters than any Republican since 1996. Which isn’t good news given the percentage of Hispanic voters is growing. “In 1976, exit polls suggest that 1 percent of voters were Hispanic,” reports The Fix’s Philip Bump. “By 1996, that figure had only risen to 5 percent. In this election cycle, Pew projects that Hispanics will make up 12 percent of all voters, meaning that a poor Trump performance would overlap with heavy turnout.”

Education Level Emerges as Sharp Dividing Line in Clinton-Trump Race by Bloomberg Politics’ John McCormick

Clinton wins the college-educated segment by 25 percentage points, 59 percent to 34 percent. Trump’s edge among those without a college education is 10 points, 52 percent to 42 percent. Trump’s lead is 4-to-1 among white men with less than a college degree, 76 percent to 19 percent. Clinton’s advantage with college-educated women is 64 percent to 31 percent. That’s vastly different from what was recorded in the 2012 presidential election…President Barack Obama only narrowly beat Republican challenger Mitt Romney among college graduates, 50 percent to 48 percent.

For those who listen to Donald Trump frequently, his Thursday interview on CNBC started out routinely: The Republican presidential nominee slammed Mexico and China here, mentioned Crooked Hillary there. But then the candidate of bluster, extra-large crowd size, and scorn for losers said he’d be OK if he lost! It was one of his most shocking statements yet. Was he signaling—amid defecting Republicans, horrified down-ballot candidates, plummeting polls, slow ground game, and absolutely fed up GOP leadership—that he knew things were going badly? The rumors that he could be replaced on the ticket may be far-fetched. But if even Trump is copping to the mess, just how much trouble could he be in?

Meanwhile, as we find out that hacks of Democrats and top national security figures have broadened, and Trump might—might—have run out of scandals, at least temporarily, could Clinton soon feel a level of scrutiny that her rival has so far helped her avoid, particularly with reports emerging from CNN of a tussle between the Department of Justice and the FBI over investigating the Clinton Foundation?  [FBI officials wanted to investigate whether there was a criminal conflict of interest with the State Department and the Clinton Foundation during Clinton’s tenure. The Department of Justice had looked into allegations surrounding the foundation a year earlier after the release of the controversial book “Clinton Cash,” but found them to be unsubstantiated .].. Or can she continue to put pressure on Trump with her Friday release of yet another tax return, which shows that she and her husband made $10.6 million and paid an effective tax rate of about 34 percent in 2015, even as Trump continues to avoid disclosure?