TRUMP INCITES INSURECTION AT THE CAPITAL. ONE RIOTER KILLED.

Congress Reconvenes After Pro-Trump Mob Brings Chaos To The Capitol

NPR

BENJAMIN SWASEY

ALANA WISE

ELENA MOORE

A pro-Trump mob breaks into the U.S. Capitol.Win McNamee/Getty Images

Updated at 11:45 p.m. ET

Congress reconvened Wednesday night to certify President-elect Joe Biden’s Electoral College victory, just hours after the U.S. Capitol was thrust into chaos by supporters of President Trump — an angry mob that breached the complex in an unprecedented violent act at the seat of America’s federal government.

Earlier in the day, the president has urged his backers to head to the Capitol.

A woman was shot and killed during the assault, according to Washington, D.C., police. Her identity has not been made public.

A law enforcement official familiar with the investigation told NPR’s Carrie Johnson that the alleged shooter of the woman was a senior U.S. Capitol Police officer and that the woman who was killed was unarmed.

D.C. police said three other adults died after suffering from apparent medical emergencies.

A rioter holds a Trump flag inside the U.S. Capitol Building near the Senate Chamber.Win McNamee/Getty Images

U.S. Capitol Police try to hold back rioters outside the east doors to the House side of the U.S. Capitol.Andrew Harnik/AP

Rioters are confronted by Capitol Police officers outside the Senate Chamber.Manuel Balce Ceneta/AP

A rioter sits in the Senate Chamber.Win McNamee/Getty Images

Demonstrators breached security and entered the Capitol on Wednesday as Congress debated the 2020 electoral vote tally.Roberto Schmidt/AFP via Getty Images

The insurrectionists interrupted proceedings in the House and Senate Wednesday afternoon as members of Congress were tallying Biden’s win. The counting of the electoral votes is normally a relatively pro forma session.

But for two months, Trump has falsely and continuously claimed the election was stolen from him, and dozens of fellow Republican allies had planned to object to slates of electors from various states they considered contested.

Lawmakers were debating an objection to Arizona’s results — a swing state Trump lost narrowly — when the sessions were recessed as the Capitol Police attempted to put the complex on lockdown.

Violent protesters were seen smashing windows and occupying the House and Senate floors and various lawmakers’ offices. Police were seen with guns drawn in the House chamber, pointing their firearms at windows that were smashed.

Police with guns drawn face off with protesters trying to break into the House chamber Wednesday at the Capitol.J. Scott Applewhite/AP

Rep. Jason Crow, D-Colo., comforts Rep. Susan Wild, D-Pa., while taking cover as rioters disrupt the joint session of Congress to certify the Electoral College vote.Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images

People shelter in the House gallery as rioters try to break into the House Chamber.Andrew Harnik/AP

Papers and other equipment after the House floor was evacuated as rioters tried to break into the House Chamber.J. Scott Applewhite/AP

People inside the building were told to shelter in place, and congressional leaders were taken off-site. Members of Congress were told that tear gas was being used in the Capitol Rotunda and that they should get ready to put on masks.

D.C. police said there were approximately 52 arrests as of 9:30 pm. ET, and that 14 police officers were injured.

The city’s mayor, Muriel Bowser, said Wednesday night a review will begin immediately to determine how security at the Capitol was compromised.

Trump urges peace but doubles down on election falsehoods

On Twitter, Trump asked people to remain peaceful. He then posted a video on social media, asking the rioters to go home — but not before reiterating his baseless claims about the election being stolen and saying: “You’re very special.”

Twitter and Facebook acted to remove the video, and Twitter said it locked Trump’s account for 12 hours.

His response to the violence came a few hours after he spoke to thousands of supporters outside the White House, in which he repeatedly denied the results of the election, claiming without evidence it was rigged against his campaign.

“This election was stolen from you, from me, from the country,” he said in the earlier remarks. He also urged his supporters to head to the Capitol, adding: “You’ll never take back our country with weakness.”

Protesters gesture to U.S. Capitol Police in the hallway outside of the Senate chamber on Wednesday.Manuel Balce Ceneta/AP

A rioter sits inside the office of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi inside the U.S. Capitol.Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images

Federal and local authorities scrambled to send forces to help secure the Capitol after it was overrun by the pro-Trump extremists. Reinforcements were also being deployed from Virginia, Maryland and New Jersey.

PROTESTS HALT CONGRESS’ ELECTORAL COUNT:

Authorities Send Reinforcements To Help Secure The Capitol

Law enforcement eventually gained control of the scene, ushering people out of the Capitol. The House sergeant at arms informed lawmakers and staff after 5 p.m. that the Capitol had been cleared.

Washington, D.C., instituted a 12-hour curfew that went into effect at 6 p.m. ET Wednesday.

“The President bears responsibility”

Many Republicans, who spent the summer castigating the mostly peaceful protests against racial police violence, had previously encouraged demonstrations calling to overturn the democratic election results.

But current and former politicians from both major parties condemned the breach of the Capitol, with Democrats and many Republicans blaming Trump and his allies for inciting the mob through their repeated claims of a stolen election.

Election Officials Warned ‘Someone’s Going To Get Shot,’ But That Didn’t Stop Trump

The Democrat Biden said of the attack on the Capitol: “It’s not protest; it’s insurrection.” And he urged the president to “go on national television now to fulfill his oath and defend the Constitution and demand an end to this siege.”

PROTESTS HALT CONGRESS’ ELECTORAL COUNT:

Biden: Democracy ‘Under Unprecedented Assault’ As Pro-Trump Extremists Occupy Capitol

PROTESTS HALT CONGRESS’ ELECTORAL COUNT:

“History will rightly remember today’s violence at the Capitol, incited by a sitting president who has continued to baselessly lie about the outcome of a lawful election, as a moment of great dishonor and shame for our nation,” former President Barack Obama said in a statement. “But we’d be kidding ourselves if we treated it as a total surprise. For two months now, a political party and its accompanying media ecosystem has too often been unwilling to tell their followers the truth — that this was not a particularly close election and that President-Elect Biden will be inaugurated on January 20.”

Former President George W. Bush, a Republican, said he was “appalled” by the actions of some political leaders since the election and called the “mayhem” at the Capitol “a sickening and heartbreaking sight.”

“This is how election results are disputed in a banana republic — not our democratic republic,” Bush wrote in a statement released Wednesday evening.

“The President bears responsibility for today’s events by promoting the unfounded conspiracy theories that have led to this point,” Sen. Richard Burr, R-N.C., said in a statement. “It is past time to accept the will of American voters and to allow our nation to move forward.”

Sen. Mitt Romney, R-Utah, a frequent critic of Trump, described the breach of the U.S. Capitol as “an insurrection, incited by the president of the United States.”

Trump supporters try to break through a police barrier during protests Wednesday at the Capitol.Julio Cortez/AP

A rioter carries a Confederate battle flag on the second floor of the U.S. Capitol near the entrance to the Senate after breaching security defenses.Mike Theiler/Reuters

Sen. Ben Sasse, a Republican from Nebraska, in a statement described the Capitol as being “ransacked while the leader of the free world cowered behind his keyboard.”

He continued: “Lies have consequences. This violence was the inevitable and ugly outcome of the President’s addiction to constantly stoking division.”

Other Republicans who pledged to object to electoral vote slates refrained from implicating Trump, focusing instead on quelling the violence of his supporters.

CONGRESS RECONVENES AFTER INSURRECTION:

Twitter Locks Trump’s Account, Warns Of ‘Permanent Suspension’ If Violations Continue

“Those storming the Capitol need to stop NOW,” Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas wrote on Twitter. “The Constitution protects peaceful protest, but violence—from Left or Right— is ALWAYS wrong. And those engaged in violence are hurting the cause they say they support.”

“You did not win”

Despite the violent breach, Congress resumed its session Wednesday night.

“To those who wreaked havoc in our Capitol today, you did not win,” Vice President Pence, in his role as president of the Senate, said as he gaveled the proceedings back in. “Violence never wins, freedom wins. And this is still the people’s house.”

POLITICS

Democrats Take Control Of Senate With Twin Georgia Victories

Earlier, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., wrote in a letter to members that the “shameful assault” on democracy wouldn’t “deter us from our responsibility to validate the election of Joe Biden.”

The attack on the Capitol convinced some GOP senators, including Steve Daines of Montana and Mike Braun of Indiana, to withdraw their objections to electoral votes.

Georgia Sen. Kelly Loeffler, who just lost her reelection bid, said she will no longer object to the state’s results.

“The events that have transpired today have forced me to reconsider and I cannot now in good conscious object to the certification of these electors,” she said.

Earlier Wednesday, Sen. Jeff Merkley, D-Ore., wrote on Twitter that the Electoral College ballots had been “rescued from the Senate floor. If our capable floor staff hadn’t grabbed them, they would have been burned by the mob.”

NPR’s Deirdre Walsh, Kelsey Snell and Brian Mann contributed to this report.

‘The Lost Cause’ Lost Again

HEATHER COX RICHARDSON

Today the Confederate flag flew in the United States Capitol.

This morning, results from the Georgia Senatorial runoff elections showed that Democrats Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff had beaten their Republican opponents—both incumbents—by more than the threshold that would require a recount. The Senate is now split 50-50 between Republicans and Democrats, so the position of majority leader goes to a Democrat. Mitch McConnell, who has bent the government to his will since he took over the position of majority leader in 2007, will be replaced.

With the Democrats in control of both Congress and the Executive Branch, it is reasonable to expect we will see voting rights legislation, which will doom the current-day Republican Party, depending as it has on voter suppression to stay in power.

Trump Republicans and McConnell Republicans had just begun to blame each other for the debacle when Congress began to count the certified electoral votes from the states to establish that Democrat Joe Biden won the 2020 presidential election. But Trump contends that he won the election in a landslide and “fraud” made Biden the winner.

Radical lawmakers courted Trump’s base by echoing Trump’s charges, then tried to argue that the fact voters no longer trusted the vote was reason to contest the certified votes.

More than 100 members of the House announced they would object to counting the votes of certain states. About 13 senators, led by Josh Hawley (R-MO) and Ted Cruz (R-TX), agreed to join them. The move would slow down the count as each chamber would have to debate and take a separate vote on whether to accept the state votes, but the objectors never had anywhere near the votes they needed to make their objections stick.

So Trump turned to pressuring Vice President Mike Pence, who would preside over the counting, to throw out the Biden votes. On Monday, Trump tweeted that “the Vice President has the power to reject fraudulently chosen electors.” This would throw the blame for the loss onto Pence, but the vice president has no constitutional power to do any such thing, and this morning he made that clear in a statement. Trump then tweeted that Pence “didn’t have the courage to do what should have been done.”

It seemed clear that the voting would be heated, but it was also clear that most of the lawmakers opposing the count were posturing to court Trump’s base for future elections. Congress would count Biden’s win.

But Trump had urged his supporters for weeks to descend on Washington, D.C., to stop what he insisted was the stealing of the election. They did so and, this morning, began to congregate near the Capitol, where the counting would take place. As he passed them on the east side of the Capitol, Hawley raised a power fist.

In the middle of the day, Trump’s lawyer Rudy Giuliani spoke to the crowd, telling them: “Let’s have trial by combat.” Trump followed, lying that he had won the election and saying “we are going to have to fight much harder.” He warned that Pence had better “come through for us, and if he doesn’t, that will be a sad day for our country.” He warned that Chinese-driven socialists are taking over the country. And he told them to march on Congress to “save our democracy.”

As rioters took Trump at his word, Congress was counting the votes alphabetically by state. When they got to Arizona, Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) stood up to echo the rhetoric radicals had been using to discredit the certified votes, saying that public distrust in the election—created out of thin air by Republicans—justified an investigation. Within an hour, a violent mob stormed the Capitol and Cruz, along with the rest of the lawmakers, was rushed to safety (four quick-thinking staffers brought along the electoral ballots, in their ceremonial boxes). 

As the rioters broke in, police shot and killed one of them: Ashli Babbitt, an Air Force veteran from San Diego, QAnon believer, and staunch Trump supporter. The insurrectionists broke into the Senate chamber, where one was photographed on the dais of the Senate, shirtless and wearing a bull costume that revealed a white supremacist tattoo on his abdomen. They roamed the Capitol looking for Pence and other lawmakers they considered enemies. Not finding them, they ransacked offices. One rioter photographed himself sitting at House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s desk with his feet on it.

They carried with them the Confederate flag.

Capitol police provided little obstruction, apparently eager to avoid confrontations that could be used as propaganda on social media. The intruders seemed a little surprised at their success, taking selfies and wandering around like tourists. One stole a lectern.

As the White House, the FBI, the Justice Department, and the Department of Homeland Security all remained silent, President-Elect Joe Biden spoke to cameras urging calm and calling on Trump to tell his supporters to go home. But CNN White House Correspondent Kaitlan Collins later reported that she spoke to White House officials who were “genuinely freaked… out” that Trump was “borderline enthusiastic” about the storming of the Capitol because “it meant the certification was being derailed.”

At 4:17, Trump issued his own video, reiterating his false claims that he had been cheated of victory. Only then did he conclude with: “Go home, we love you, you’re very special.” Twitter immediately took the video down. By nighttime Trump’s Twitter feed seemed to blame his enemies for the violence the president had incited (although the rhythm of the words did not sound to me like Trump’s own usual cadence): “These are the things and events that happen when a sacred landslide election victory is so unceremoniously & viciously stripped away from great patriots who have been badly & unfairly treated for so long. Go home with love & in peace. Remember this day forever!”

Twitter took down the tweet and banned the president for at least twelve hours for inciting violence; Facebook and Instagram followed suit.

As the afternoon wore on, police found two pipe bombs near the headquarters of the Republican National Committee and the Democratic National Committee in Washington, D.C., as well as a truck full of weapons and ammunition, and mobs gathered at statehouses across the country, including in Kansas, Ohio, Minnesota, California, and Georgia.

By 5:00, acting Secretary of Defense Christopher Miller issued a statement saying he had conferred with Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley, Vice President Pence, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), and Representative Steny Hoyer (D-MD) and had fully activated the D.C. National Guard.

He did not mention the president.

By late evening, Washington, D.C., police chief Robert J. Contee III announced that at least 52 people had been arrested and 14 law enforcement officers injured. A total of four people died, including one who died of a heart attack and one who tased themself.

White House Counsel Pat Cipollone urged people to stay away from Trump to limit their chances of being prosecuted for treason under the Sedition Act. By midnight, four staffers had resigned, as well as Deputy National Security Adviser Matthew Pottinger, with other, higher level officials also talking about leaving. Even Trump adviser Stephen Miller admitted it was a bad day. Quickly, pro-Trump media began to insist that the attack was a false-flag operation of “Antifa,” despite the selfies and videos posted by known right-wing agitators, and the fact that Trump had invited, incited, and praised them.

The attempted coup drew condemnation from all but the radical Trump supporters in government. Former President George W. Bush issued a statement “on insurrection at the Capitol,” saying “it is a sickening and heartbreaking sight.” “I am appalled by the reckless behavior of some political leaders since the election,” he said, and accused such leaders of enflaming the rioters with lies and false hopes. Senator Mitt Romney (R-UT) was more direct: “What happened here today was an insurrection incited by the President of the United States.”

Across the country tonight are calls for Trump’s removal through the 25th amendment, impeachment, or resignation. The Democrats on the House Judiciary Committee have joined the chorus, writing to Pence urging him to invoke the 25th. Angry at Trump’s sabotaging of the Georgia elections in addition to the attack on our democracy, prominent Republicans are rumored to be doing the same.

At 8:00, heavily armed guards escorted the lawmakers back to the Capitol, thoroughly scrubbed by janitors, where the senators and representatives resumed their counting of the certified votes. The events of the afternoon had broken some of the Republicans away from their determination to challenge the votes. Fourteen Republican senators had announced they would object to counting the certified votes from Arizona; in the evening count the number dropped to six: Cruz (R-TX), Hawley (R-MO), Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-MS), John Kennedy (R-LA), Roger Marshall (R-KS), and Tommy Tuberville (R-AL).

In the House, 121 Republicans, more than half the Republican caucus, voted to throw out Biden’s electors from Arizona. As in the Senate, they lost when 303 Representatives voted in favor.

Six senators and more than half of the House Republicans backed an attempt to overthrow our government, in favor of a man caught on tape just four days ago trying to strong-arm a state election official into falsifying the election results.

Today the Confederate flag flew in the United States Capitol.

Biden Promises ‘Light’ After Trump’s ‘Darkness’: 7 Takeaways From The DNC

DOMENICO MONTANARO

Win McNamee/Getty Images

 

Democrats have to be very happy with what they were able to accomplish this week with their convention.

Their production of the first all-virtual convention went off mostly without a hitch. At times, the last night seemed like whiplash with a serious segment on faith and forgiveness followed by snark from emcee Julia Louis-Dreyfus, for example.

But none of that will be remembered. What will be, and perhaps for a very long time, was the speech Joe Biden was able to deliver. Biden gave a lot of thunderous speeches on the floor of the U.S. Senate when he was a senator and he has appeared at conventions before, but no speech he has ever made was as important, and perhaps as well-delivered, as this one.

With that, here are seven takeaways from a consequential week:

 

1. Biden may have delivered the best speech of his career

It was more fireside chat than convention barn burner, and he has never been an arena orator like the man he worked for, Barack Obama. But, frankly, it worked for Biden. 

He delivered a sober and urgent speech directly to the American people with a clarity of message, one of light versus dark. Biden, a devout Irish Catholic, seemingly channeled years of homilies about good versus evil, right versus wrong. If he wins, it will be a speech for the ages.

“Here and now, I give you my word: If you entrust me with the presidency, I will draw on the best of us, not the worst,” he said. “I will be an ally of the light, not the darkness.”

The Trump campaign might regret setting the bar so low to the point where as long as Biden got through the speech, he would dispel questions of his mental acuity. But he did far more than that. For the first time, perhaps even since he began this campaign, Biden showed why he should be president for reasons other than simply being not Trump.

2. Democrats offered a different choice

Even before Biden’s speech, Democrats were able to lay out a different choice, a different version of what the country could be, for those disaffected by Trump.

Look, Trump’s supporters are locked in. But Democrats took aim at that sliver of truly persuadable voters and tried to win them over. Democrats’ vision for America is one that celebrates diversity, adheres to norms and will change direction.

Change is one of the most powerful motivators in politics, and it particularly sticks when things aren’t going well in the country. Think Ronald Reagan following Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton after George H.W. Bush and Barack Obama after George W. Bush. If Americans are looking for change again, Democrats presented it.

It’s up to Trump and Republicans next week to try to sell steadiness to right the course. That’s something that can work for presidents seeking reelection, though it’s made tougher by Trump’s volatility.

Jill and Joe Biden, wearing face masks, watch fireworks outside the Chase Center in Wilmington, Del., after Biden’s acceptance speech for the Democratic presidential nomination.

 

3. A unified Democratic Party was on display

One advantage of a virtual convention is the boos aren’t magnified. Past conventions have featured at least some unrest within the base.

That was certainly true in 2016 with Bernie Sanders supporters who did not go gently into that good night. And it was true of Sen. Ted Cruz supporters at the Republican National Convention the same year.

But it wasn’t just the lack of in-person delegates, it was the clear and present threat of Donald Trump for progressives. Sanders spoke strongly on Biden’s behalf; and single-payer advocate Ady Barkan, who has ALS, praised Biden and promoted progress over purity.

Sure, there was some grumbling about who got time, who didn’t and who got more, but this is a far more unified Democratic Party coming out of this convention than the one taking on Trump the last time.

4. It wasn’t all about Trump

For as much as this election is all about Trump and as much as Biden’s supporters are mostly motivated by antipathy for Trump, the convention did buoy Biden personally and made an affirmative case for Biden’s vision for the country.

It became pretty clear, if it wasn’t going in, that a message Democrats wanted to get across was: The Bidens are decent people, people you can trust and who care about people like you.

But as his speech showed, don’t mistake kindness for weakness. It’s almost as if one message was — he’ll fightfor kindness.

5. Kamala Harris is the heir apparent

Democratic vice presidential nominee Kamala Harris speaks during the third day of the Democratic National Convention.  Olivier Douliery/AFP via Getty Images

 

If you had any doubt that Harris was the right pick, she proved she’s ready for prime time. She delivered a solid speech and has hit all the right notes since being announced as Biden’s running mate.

Being a Black and South Asian woman, she highlights the diversity of the Democratic Party and of America. Her simply being on the ballot is a statement against Trump. But she has shown, throughout her career and highlighted this week, she is far more than that. 

 She’s sharp, can deliver a punch and has provided some needed energy to the Biden candidacy. At the end of the day, Biden won the Democratic primary, in part, because he was seen as the most likely to beat Trump. But it’s clear, given that he has said he would be a transitional president that he is a bridge and Harris is on the other side.

Democrats Question Whether Postmaster General’s Hiring Skirted Background Checks

6. An economic message didn’t break through

Biden has led Trump in almost every issue area consistently and by a lot, except when it comes to the economy. Democrats didn’t seem to do anything to break through with an economic message, beyond saying that the pandemic had to be solved and other boilerplate Democratic points, like securing the social safety net and having the rich pay their “fair share.”

Biden was involved in one segment Thursday dealing with the economy, where he talked with workers. At one point, he said that he believed the auto industry could be revitalized back to its peak in the 1940s and 1950s. But no economist thinks that’s possible.

He also said he wants to invest $2 trillion in infrastructure, something every president says he wants to invest in but has been unable to get the parties to agree on how to pay for it.

It sounded as if Harris was on track to pivoting to a new emphasis on the economy when she was picked to be Biden’s running mate when she talked about Trump spoiling the economy he inherited from Obama. But that was not something much talked about during these four days.

7. It’s about voting, voting, voting

 

Former first lady Michelle Obama, and her necklace, urged viewers to vote on the opening night of the Democratic National Convention. Chris Delmas /AFP via Getty Images

If there was one message Democrats hope people take away from this week it was that people need to go vote.

While wearing a V-O-T-E necklace, former first lady Michelle Obama implored people get on their “comfortable shoes” and bring their dinners, maybe even breakfasts and wait for as long as it takes.

Her husband, former President Barack Obama, ended his speech with a similar urgency:

WATCH: Barack Obama’s Address To The Democratic National Convention

“We have to get busy building it up by pouring all our efforts into these 76 days and by voting like never before for Joe and Kamala and candidates up and down the ticket,” he said, “so that we leave no doubt about what this country that we love stands for today and for all our days to come.”

Democrats really feel if everyone votes, and if all their votes are counted, they win.

And now it’s on to the Republican convention starting Monday, where it will be interesting to see whether there are any new ways that Trump frames the argument for why he feels he deserves four more years.

 

The National Polls: 2016 vs. 2020 Before the Conventions

 

Fewer undecideds, more party unity, and an independent shift

LARRY SABATO, CHRYSTAL BALL

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Several national pollsters conducted surveys on the eve of the convention season in both 2016 and 2020. We compared them to see how the race was different from four years ago.

— Compared to four years ago, the parties are more unified; Biden is leading with independents after Clinton and Trump were tied with them at this point; and more poll respondents support the major party candidates overall.

— In other words, there are fewer undecideds and fewer voters saying they will vote third party.

— Overall, this is probably good for Joe Biden given that he is leading, but Trump still has time to catch up, and unlike Biden, Trump doesn’t really need to win the popular vote to win the election.

2016 vs. 2020 in the national polls

As we enter the final day of the Democratic National Convention, it remains to be seen whether either of these virtual conventions will change the presidential race all that much. Joe Biden, the current polling leader, probably wouldn’t mind maintaining the status quo. Donald Trump, who has been behind, needs the race to change.

Overall, though, the contest has been relatively stable. As Alan Abramowitz pointed out in the Crystal Ball earlier this summer, the national polls have been more stable than they were four years ago. And as we headed into the conventions, it appeared that there were fewer voters up for grabs than four years ago. Given that Biden has been leading – just like Hillary Clinton was – we thought we’d look at some of polls from the pre-convention period and point out some differences between the state of the race last time before the conventions compared to now.

Table 1 shows a comparison between four major national pollsters that 1) Conducted polls before the start of the 2016 and 2020 conventions and 2) Made crosstab information about how both partisans and independents were supporting.

For details on the polls, see the notes and sources under the table. The “other” category in Table 1 combines respondents who were undecided or indicated they were not voting for a major-party candidate.

Table 1: 2016 and 2020 pre-convention polls

 
Notes: All polls are of registered voters. CNN’s poll was conducted by ORC in 2016 and SSRS in 2020. Marist’s 2016 media partner was McClatchy, and its partners are NPR and PBS NewsHour in 2020. CNN, Marist, and Pew polls used here in both 2016 and 2020 only named the major party candidates. The Monmouth polls in both 2016 and 2020 included the Libertarian and Green Party nominees by name. Columns may not add up to 100% because of rounding.
 

Sources: CNN 2016 poll of registered voters conducted by ORC, July 13-16; CNN 2020 poll of registered voters conducted by SSRS, Aug. 12-15. Marist 2016 poll of registered voters conducted in partnership with McClatchy, July 5-9; Marist 2020 poll of registered voters conducted in partnership with NPR and PBS NewsHour, Aug. 3-11; Monmouth 2016 poll of registered voters, July 14-16; Monmouth 2020 poll of registered voters, Aug. 6-10; Pew 2016 poll of registered voters, June 15-26; Pew 2020 poll of registered voters, July 27-Aug. 2.

There’s a lot to digest here, but there are three key takeaways that we see:

1. The parties are more unified: Both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump saw their command of their parties questioned at their respective nominating conventions. In Cleveland, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) was booed off the stage after telling delegates to vote their conscience, a pointed non-endorsement of Trump. In Philadelphia, rambunctious Bernie Sanders backers made it clear that there was bad blood from the primary — and a WikiLeaks dump of internal Democratic National Committee emails days before the convention only fueled their discontent.

Still, the convention drama probably overstated party unity problems on both sides. As the average of the four national polls make clear, both Trump and Clinton were in the high 80s in party support. However, that is surpassed by the 95% support Biden is receiving among Democrats and the 93% support that Trump is receiving among Republicans. Convention polling bounces can sometimes reflect a party coming out more united than they were going in; by that standard, perhaps we shouldn’t expect much of a bounce for either candidate, because the parties are so unified already. Trump may have a little more room to grow if he can claw back a point or two of the self-identified Republicans who currently indicate they back Biden.

2. Biden is doing better with independents than Clinton: Independents in American politics can be a little deceiving, in that while they often make up a third or more of respondents in a national poll, many of them are hidden partisans who just happen to call themselves independents. Winning independents is also not necessarily decisive: Barack Obama was reelected in 2012, for instance, despite losing independents, at least according to the national exit poll. That said, independents can decide elections, and Donald Trump’s four-point advantage with them was one of the ingredients in his narrow victory.

In the 2016 polls, the independent vote was mixed: Clinton led, but only by a small two-point margin in aggregate, and more than a fifth of independents in these polls were not voting for Trump or Clinton. In the 2020 polls, Biden has a clear edge with independents in three of the four polls, and the fourth — CNN — is basically tied (it should be no shock, then, that CNN is also the closest of the four 2020 polls overall, with Biden leading by just four points). Note as well that the number of independents in the “other” category, just 10%, is about half that of 2016. And that leads to the final observation.

3. The major party candidates are attracting more support overall: Heading into the conventions, the electorate just seems more comfortable with their choices this time than in 2016, which is reflected in the smaller number of undecideds, third-party voters, and others that we’ve lumped into the “others” category. Overall, in the four 2020 surveys, just 6% of the voters are in the others category, and that might be even smaller had we not included Monmouth, which listed minor-party candidates as an option for voters (the other three polls did not in either year). Meanwhile, on average 13% of voters in the 2016 surveys were in the other category. Trump’s performance among late-deciding voters and voters who held an unfavorable view of each candidate helped him win the election. In general, there seem to be fewer of these kinds of voters this time.

One thing to watch: Does the number of “others” – essentially undecideds or third-party voters – go up, stay the same, or decrease? If Biden maintains the same lead, but the number of “others” rise, that could hypothetically mean that Trump is shaking lose some of his support and could capture it later. Likewise, if the number of undecideds stays the same or even falls, without a corresponding tightening of the race, Trump has an even smaller pool of non-Biden voters to convert.

Conclusion

If you’ve seen analysts — including us — assert that Biden’s lead going into the conventions was more solid than Clinton’s was four years ago, the data presented above illustrate why. Biden’s lead, at least in these polls, was bigger than Clinton’s, and there are a smaller pool of “others” for the two major party candidates to bring into the fold.

That said, the polls are still not at the point where we consider them strongly predictive of the eventual result, and there are all sorts of confounding factors, including turnout and the trajectory of the public health crisis.

We also know that national polls don’t tell the whole story. In 2016, the decisive state in the Electoral College — Wisconsin, a state we analyze in depth in this week’s Crystal Ball — voted about three points to the right of the nation. Trump doesn’t need to be leading national polls, or the eventual national popular vote, to win. But in all likelihood, he does need to get closer than the polls show right now, and the electorate may not be quite as fluid as it was in 2016. We will get a better sense of this after the dust settles from the conventions.

 

 

KYLE KONDIK

Calif Wildfires/Postmaster Gen/NYC Gyms/UPDATES

In California, record heat, rolling blackouts and now wildfires test a state already besieged.

On Monday, Gov. Gavin Newsom of California called for an investigation into what he described as a major utility failure that was even more alarming set against the backdrop of the pandemic, when people, many largely confined inside, may be more dependent than ever on electricity: rolling blackouts over the weekend, caused by a record-shattering heat wave.

And a wave of wildfires are also posing particular challenges in the pandemic, Mr. Newsom said, as officials struggle to shelter residents forced to flee, and the state’s firefighting force has been depleted thanks to outbreaks in the state’s prisons.

The power issues and wildfires could also have impact on education. A reporter asked, for instance, about how the state would address the loss of remote learning time, if students lose power. “In extenuating circumstances, we have to be flexible,” he said.

The blackouts came not long after California leaders scrambled to address problems with the state’s virus data reporting system, which clouded case counts and threw into question the list of counties where virus transmission is particularly troubling.

Mr. Newsom said on Monday that the backlog of cases arising from the data glitch had been cleared, and that the state’s seven-day average reflected that.

The state’s positivity rate and other measures, such as hospitalizations, he said, were moving in the right direction.

 

Death Valley Just Recorded the Hottest Temperature on Earth

In the popular imagination, Death Valley in Southern California is the hottest place on earth. At 3:41 p.m. on Sunday, it lived up to that reputation when the temperature at the aptly named Furnace Creek reached 130 degrees Fahrenheit, according to the NOAA Weather Prediction center.

If that reading — the equivalent of 54 degrees Celsius — is verified by climate scientists, a process that could take months, it would be the highest temperature ever reliably recorded on earth.

Death Valley is no stranger to heat. Sitting 282 feet below sea level in the Mojave Desert in southeastern California near the Nevada border, it is the lowest, driest and hottest location in the United States. It is sparsely populated, with just 576 residents, according to the most recent census.

Brandi Stewart, the spokeswoman for Death Valley National Park, said that the valley is so hot because of the configuration of its lower-than-sea-level basin and surrounding mountains. The superheated air gets trapped in a pocket and just circulates. “It’s like stepping into a convection oven every day in July and August,” she said. So how does 130 degrees, which she walked out into on Sunday, feel? “It doesn’t feel that different from 125 degrees,” she said. “The feeling of that heat on my face, it can almost take your breath away.”

She added that “People say, ‘Oh, but it’s a dry heat!’ I want to do a little bit of an eye roll there,” she said. “Humidity has its downsides too, but dry heat is also not fun.”

The heat rises through the afternoon, generally reaching the peak from 4 p.m. to 5:30 p.m. The high on Monday was 127.

The previous record for highest temperature was also observed in Death Valley on June 30, 2013, at 129 degrees. The same temperature was also recorded in Kuwait and Pakistan several years later.

And that is also important to understand: There may be hotter places than Death Valley, such as parts of the Sahara, but they are too remote for reliable monitoring, said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California, Los Angeles and the National Center for Atmospheric Research.

As the greenhouse gases that humans generate continue heating the planet, more records are expected, and not just in Death Valley.

The postmaster general received millions in income from a company that works with U.S.P.S., documents show.

Postmaster General Louis DeJoy, who has come under fire for financial ties to a company that does business with the United States Postal Service, received between $1.2 million and $7 million in income last year from that firm, according to financial disclosure forms reviewed by The New York Times.

Mr. DeJoy continues to hold between $25 million and $50 million in that company, XPO Logistics, where he was chief executive until 2015 and a board member until 2018. Those stock holdings were first reported last week by CNN.

But documents filed with the Office of Government Ethics show that Mr. DeJoy also receives millions of dollars in rental payments from XPO through leasing agreements at buildings that he owns. The revelations are likely to fuel further scrutiny of Mr. DeJoy, a major donor to President Trump who has made cost-cutting moves and other changes at the Postal Service that Democrats warn are aimed at undermining the 2020 election.

Mr. DeJoy agreed on Monday to testify next week before the House Oversight Committee, where Democrats are expected to press him on the justification for his policies and question his potential conflicts of interest.

Mr. DeJoy has maintained that he has fully complied with federal ethics rules and that the measures he has implemented are necessary to modernize the Postal Service. “I take my ethical obligations seriously, and I have done what is necessary to ensure that I am and will remain in compliance with those obligations,” Mr. DeJoy said in a statement.

Elsewhere on the postal front:

• Two Democrats on the House Judiciary Committee urged the F.B.I. to open a criminal investigation into actions by Mr. DeJoy and the Postal Service’s Board of Governors that may have caused mail delays. “Multiple media investigations show that Postmaster DeJoy and the Board of Governors have retarded the passage of mail,” Representatives Ted W. Lieu of California and Hakeem Jeffries of New York wrote in a letter to the F.B.I. director. “If their intent in doing so was to affect mail-in balloting or was motivated by personal financial reasons, then they likely committed crimes.”

• Mail-in voters from six states filed a lawsuit against Mr. Trump and Mr. DeJoy, seeking to block cuts to the Postal Service ahead of the election.

• Senator Mitch McConnell, pushed back on Monday on concerns that the Postal Service would not be able to handle as many as 80 million ballots come November, telling reporters in his home state that “the Postal Service is going to be just fine” and that Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin had already signaled a willingness to spend more on it.

• The House Speaker, Nancy Pelosi, Democrat of California, said Sunday that she would call the House back from its annual summer recess almost a month early to vote this week on legislation to block changes at the Postal Service.

• The postal crisis has forced states to look for alternatives to mail-in ballots.

  Postal slowdowns and warnings of delayed mail-in ballots are causing election officials to rethink vote-by-mail strategies, with some states seeking to bypass the post office with ballot drop boxes, drive-through drop-offs or expanded in-person voting options, despite the coronavirus pandemic.

  The 2020 election was supposed to be the largest-ever experiment in voting by mail, but the Trump administration’s late cost-cutting push at the Postal Service has shaken the confidence of voters and Democratic officials alike. The images of sorting machines being removed from postal facilities, mailboxes uprooted or bolted shut on city streets, and packages piling up at mail facilities have sparked anger and deep worry.

  Even if, as the Postal Service says, it has plenty of capacity to process mail-in ballots, the fear is that the psychological damage is already done. So as Democrats in Washington fight to restore Postal Service funding, election officials around the country are looking for a Plan B.

• The newest front in the battle over voting in 2020 is the drop box, where ballots mailed out to voters can be returned without fear of Postal Service backlogs or coronavirus infection. Once voters deposit their ballots in such boxes, they are collected by election officials and brought to polling places for tabulation.

  Election officials in Connecticut, Virginia, Pennsylvania and elsewhere are seeking to expand drop-off locations for absentee and mail-in ballots, but they have met vehement opposition from President Trump and his campaign.

• 

• U.S. college campuses grapple with coronavirus fears, outbreaks and protests.

• The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill announced it would shift to remote learning for all undergraduate classes starting Wednesday.

  The university, with 30,000 students, was one of the largest in the country to open its campus during the pandemic. Officials said 177 students had been isolated after testing as of Monday, and another 349 students were in quarantine because of possible exposure.

• The university said it would help students leave campus housing without financial penalty. It was not immediately clear how the university’s decision would affect its athletic programs, though North Carolina said that student-athletes could remain in their dormitories.

  The university’s athletic department said in a statement that it still expected its students would be able to play fall sports, but that it would “continue to evaluate the situation.” 

• Earlier this month, dozens of students protested plans to reopen by staging a “die-in” on campus. A similar protest erupted on Monday at the Georgia Institute of Technology in Atlanta, the first day of fall classes. The school had said that majority of courses would have some in-person attendance this fall, but dozens of students and faculty members staged a “die-in” on campus to push for more options for staff and students to teach or learn remotely.

• Some of the concerns about reopening college campuses have been directed at students who have gathered at bars or house parties. Video footage appearing to show University of North Georgia students attending a crowded off-campus party garnered online attention over the weekend
• 

• N.Y. Gyms and Fitness Studios Can Reopen as Soon as Aug. 24, Cuomo Says.

• Health clubs will be limited to a third of their total capacity and must meet state requirements before reopening.

• Mr. Cuomo’s announcement came with several caveats: Gyms would be limited to a third of their total capacity, and people would be required to wear masks at all times. The state would also require air filters that help prevent airborne transmission of viral particles and sign-in forms to assist with contact-tracing efforts.

  Local governments will also need to inspect gyms to make sure they meet the state’s requirements before they open or within two weeks of their opening.

  Local elected officials can stop gyms from holding indoor classes, Mr. Cuomo said. New York City has decided not to initially allow indoor fitness classes or indoor pools to operate when gyms reopen, a spokesman for the mayor said.

  Mr. Cuomo’s announcement came with several caveats: Gyms would be limited to a third of their total capacity, and people would be required to wear masks at all times. The state would also require air filters that help prevent airborne transmission of viral particles and sign-in forms to assist with contact-tracing efforts.

  Local governments will also need to inspect gyms to make sure they meet the state’s requirements before they open or within two weeks of their opening. Local elected officials can stop gyms from holding indoor classes, Mr. Cuomo said. New York City has decided not to initially allow indoor fitness classes or indoor pools to operate when gyms reopen, a spokesman for the mayor said.

  Mr. Cuomo said on Monday that gyms would be allowed to reopen because New York has successfully kept its rate of positive coronavirus test rates hovering around 1 percent since June.

  Still, Mr. Cuomo said that he remained worried that reopening gyms might accelerate the virus’s spread. He said his main concern was that local governments would not adequately enforce the state’s restrictions, noting, as he has before, how many cities and towns have not aggressively cracked down on bars and restaurants ignoring social distancing measures.

  It was not clear on what day New York City would clear gyms for reopening, or which agency would be responsible for conducting the necessary inspections or enforcing regulations.

  Last week, Mr. Cuomo announced that museums and other cultural institutions in New York City, which stayed closed even as their counterparts reopened in the rest of state, would be allowed to reopen on Aug. 24, at 25 percent capacity and with timed ticketing.

  Also last week, Mr. Cuomo gave bowling alleys statewide the green light to reopen with strict protocols in place: Every other lane is supposed to be blocked off because of social distancing, and bowling equipment must be properly sanitized.

‘Donald Trump is the wrong president for our country.’ Michelle Obama unleashes on Trump accusing him of ‘utter lack of empathy’ and saying a second term ‘can and will be worse’ – then mocks him for saying ‘It is what it is’ about COVID crisis

Michelle Obama gives searing keynote: ‘We have got to vote for Joe Biden like our lives depend on it.’

Sanders warns ‘authoritarianism has taken root in this country’ as he begs his supporters to back Joe Biden to oust ‘not normal’ Donald Trump.“ The future of our democracy is at stake.”

Democrats opened the most extraordinary presidential nominating convention in recent history on Monday night with a program that spanned the gamut from democratic socialists to Republicans, from the relatives of George Floyd to family members of those killed by the coronavirus, in a two-hour event that was a striking departure from the traditional summer pageant of American democracy.

Capping the evening was an urgent plea from Michelle Obama. Breaking through the stilted online format, Mrs. Obama provided the emotional high point of the night as she confronted the president directly. “Donald Trump is the wrong president for our country,” she said. “He has had more than enough time to prove that he can do the job, but he is clearly in over his head. He cannot meet this moment.” In her withering assessment, she accused Trump of creating “chaos,” sowing “division” and governing “with a total and utter lack of empathy.”

Mrs. Obama, the former first lady, spoke emphatically into the camera and gave a scathing, point-by-point analysis of Mr. Trump’s presidency in an urgent summons for Democratic voters to cast ballots in any way they could, even if it meant waiting in long lines to do so.

She began by questioning the very legitimacy of Mr. Trump’s election in 2016, pointing out that he had lost the popular tally by “three million votes.”

She went on to attack the president’s response to the coronavirus pandemic and said that the strong economy Mr. Trump inherited from her husband four years ago was “in shambles.” She also said Mr. Trump’s divisive approach on race relations had emboldened “torch-bearing white supremacists,” and ripped him for a lack of “leadership or consolation or any semblance of steadiness.”

Mrs. Obama’s speech, which aired in the final hour, has been in the can for at least a week, according to people familiar with the matter. The speech was prerecorded because event planners did not want to risk running it live, in anticipation of opening-night technical glitches.

Mrs. Obama, reaching the end of her 20-minute time slot, cast the race not as merely the most important election of her lifetime, but as a last chance, of sorts, to redeem the nation from the steep moral, political and economic decline precipitated by Mr. Trump.

“So, if you take one thing from my words tonight, it is this: If you think things cannot possibly get worse, trust me, they can; and they will if we don’t make a change in this election,” Mrs. Obama said. “If we have any hope of ending this chaos, we have got to vote for Joe Biden like our lives depend on it.”

With no arena, and no loudspeaker to introduce the presenters, Democrats turned to an M.C. of sorts, the actress Eva Longoria, who kept the evening moving between prerecorded and live video presentations. A lineup of political luminaries delivered remarks in rapid-fire format and only a few of them — Mrs. Obama, for one, and Mr. Sanders — possessed the sheer star power to linger in the perception of the audience.

Perhaps the most searing critique of Mr. Trump came not from an elected official but from Kristin Urquiza, a young woman whose father, a Trump supporter, died of the coronavirus. Speaking briefly and in raw terms about her loss, Ms. Urquiza said of her father, “His only pre-existing condition was trusting Donald Trump, and for that he paid with his life.”

Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont on Monday portrayed it as an imperative to defeat President Trump, offering a call for unity to progressive voters who supported him during the primary.

“Many of the ideas we fought for that just a few years ago were considered radical are now mainstream,” he said. “But let us be clear. If Donald Trump is re-elected, all the progress we have made will be in jeopardy….At its most basic,” he added, “this election is about preserving our democracy.”

Cuomo accuses Trump of politicizing the coronavirus.

Gov. Andrew Cuomo of New York unloaded on President Trump for his response to the coronavirus that savaged his state this spring, accusing the White House of first trying to “ignore” the crisis then fumbling the response by “trying to politicize it.”

New Yorkers, and viewers of cable news, have seen this performance before: His daily news briefings became must-see television, suddenly making Mr. Cuomo one of the most prominent Democrats in the country.

  Cuomo, whose initial actions during the pandemic have come under criticism, accused Mr. Trump of “learning absolutely nothing” from the lessons of the outbreak, and said Democrats wear masks “because we are smart.”

“Americans learned a critical lesson, how vulnerable we are when we are divided,” he said. “And how many lives can be lost when our government is incompetent. Donald Trump didn’t create the initial division. The division created Trump. He only made it worse,” he added.

James Clyburn, whose endorsement lifted Biden, calls him ‘as good a man as he is a leader.’

Mr. Clyburn, the highest-ranking African-American in Congress, recalled that endorsement in brief remarks from Charleston. Mr. Biden, he declared, “will always be an adopted son of South Carolina.”

“Joe Biden is as good a man as he is a leader,” Mr. Clyburn said. “I have said before and wish to reiterate tonight, we know Joe. But more importantly, Joe knows us.”

George Floyd’s brothers lead a moment of silence.

The Floyds’ presence underscored the message behind the protests — one of equality and the need to fight systemic racism, something Mr. Biden emphasized during a follow-up discussion with the parents of victims of police violence. The intensity of emotion evoked by the moment of silence, the speeches and the testimonials by parents heightened the sense of urgency in an online event that began in a smooth but somewhat antiseptic fashion.

While discussing police reform in a virtual round table, Biden himself echoed a police chief who said there are more good police than bad ones. “Most cops are good,” Biden said. “But the fact is the bad ones have to be identified and prosecuted and out, period.” While not perhaps a groundbreaking or terribly controversial statement, it was an interesting inclusion, given that it may not be a sentiment some on the left would like to see emphasized at this particular moment.

Add block

Michelle Obama gives searing keynote: ‘We have got to vote for Joe Biden like our lives depend on it.’

For someone who says she hates politics, Michelle Obama is a political powerhouse

Virtual DNC opens with speakers blaming Trump for U.S.’s woes

A night of Democratic — and Republican — speakers highlights broad support for Joe Biden

A Majority Of NYPD Officers Don’t Live In New York City, New Figures Show

51 percent of uniformed officers—which works out to 18,360 cops—currently live outside the city,

GOTHAMIST

Despite claims by Mayor Bill de Blasio that “more and more” NYPD officers live in the city they serve, new figures provided by the NYPD show that a majority of uniformed officers actually live outside of New York City. The numbers reflect a shift from four years ago, when a majority of cops lived in the five boroughs.

According to the police department, 51 percent of uniformed officers—which works out to 18,360 cops—currently live outside the city, with the rest having addresses in one of the five boroughs. The NYPD did not provide a breakdown by county.

Several weeks ago, NYPD Commissioner Dermot Shea claimed that “well over 50 percent” of the police department live in the city, but that percentage includes the NYPD’s 19,000 civilian employees, who unlike uniformed officers, are required by law to live in the city.

Data provided to Gothamist in 2016 showed that 58 percent of officers lived in New York City. The NYPD’s Patrol Guide states that officers can reside in Westchester, Rockland, Orange, Putnam, Suffolk, and Nassau counties.

A residency requirement for NYPD officers has been debated over the years, with state Senator Kevin Parker [above] introducing the most recent legislation calling for such a requirement for new officers hired after December 31st, 2020.

Last month, Mayor de Blasio expressed skepticism about residency requirements for police officers. “A lot of NYPD officers who happen to be people of color are living in the suburbs for purely economic reasons, because they can’t find enough affordable housing here,” the mayor said. “We should have a real public debate about it. But we should be mindful that it’s not as easy an equation in New York city as it is in a lot of other places because of the pure cost of housing.”